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Instead of marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is increasingly seen as a consolidation year, in which diversification-led development ends up being more deeply embedded in the area's economic model, lowering reliance on hydrocarbons and increasing resilience to external shocks. Projections from significant institutions broadly converge on a more powerful GCC growth profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by durable domestic need, continued non-oil growth, and (to varying degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.

3.2 percent growth in 2025, accelerating to 4.5 percent in 2026. Sees momentum improving, with GCC output growth projected to increase from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, showing a shift toward more positive general conditions.
Driving Regional Industrial Growth through StrategyThe IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) projects worldwide growth reducing to 3.1 percent in 2026, with sophisticated economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and developing economies simply above 4 percent. On that comparison, a 4.44.5 percent GCC growth would put the region materially ahead of the world average and a little above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, strengthening the GCC's status as a fairly high-growth pocketprovided that local threat conditions stay contained and reform momentum holds.
Driving Regional Industrial Growth through StrategyData from the GCC Statistical Center reveal that non-oil sectors already represent more than 73 percent of overall GDP, a share that has continued to rise as governments broaden investment in services, facilities, and innovation. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity across the GCC is projected to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, improving credit conditions, and increasing investment in innovation and AI-related infrastructure.

Public-sector financial investment and reform remain central to sustaining this pattern. Policy steps focused on attracting foreign direct investment, relieving foreign ownership rules, expanding capital markets, and supporting private-sector involvement continue to underpin non-oil growth and minimize the area's direct exposure to oil cost volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer dominate the development outlook, oil earnings are anticipated to play a helpful function in 2026.
Oxford Economics anticipates Brent crude rates to fall listed below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, restricting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. Oil supply is anticipated to rise once again in the 2nd half of the year, with a complete loosening up of staying production caps most likely by mid-2027.

Macroeconomic conditions across the GCC stay broadly supportive of development. Inflation is expected to remain low, with the IMF forecasting typical inflation of 2 percent across the area in 2026. Stable prices are helping protect real household earnings and underpin customer costs, which Oxford Economics expects to grow by approximately 3.5 percent over 20262027.
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